Lower House Candidates: VIC Election 2026

One Nation is taking aim at eleven key lower house seats in the Victorian state election on Saturday 28 November, and every single target has been strategically chosen. Four battlegrounds hang on razor thin margins under 5%, one seat sits completely wide open with no defending incumbent, and another features a candidate who has already secured the biggest primary vote One Nation has recorded in a Victorian district.

Below is the rundown of every candidate announced so far, including targeted districts, sitting members, and exact margins to watch. Pauline Hanson said in July the party had locked in candidates for 74 to 76 of the 88 districts, so there are plenty more names to come. For the full state strategy, explore our Upper House Preview covering all eight Legislative Council regions.

The Legislative Assembly (Lower House): Where Government Is Won or Lost

When you step into the voting booth for the Victorian state election, you hold the power to dictate who governs this state. Victoria operates on a two house parliamentary system, and you are handed two separate ballot papers. The lower house, the Legislative Assembly, is divided into 88 local districts, each represented by a single member. The maths is simple: whichever political force locks in 45 of those 88 seats forms the Victorian government and installs its leader as premier. This is the paper that determines who runs Victoria.

On the lower house ballot paper, you must number every single box in strict order of preference, a blank box destroys your vote. That mandatory rule gives your vote immense power. When you put One Nation first, your primary vote delivers a direct message. Even if a local candidate falls short of an outright win, your preferences continue to flow, ensuring your voice directly shapes who takes the seat. The upper house paper follows a completely different set of rules, detailed in our Upper House Preview.

For detailed information on parliamentary structures and ballot validity rules for Victorian elections, you can visit the Victorian Electoral Commission State Elections Guide or check the Victorian Electoral Commission Voting Guide.

The Eleven Candidates: Targets, Margins, and Battlegrounds

Candidates are ranked strictly by the size of the margin they must bridge, from the most vulnerable battleground to the safest stronghold.

Every margin reflects the winning margin from the 2022 state election, with the exception of Nepean, which was updated during the May by-election.

Warren PickeringVictorian leaderPakenhamOPEN SEAT · LABOR 0.4%Follow →

One Nation's Victorian leader is standing in the most marginal Labor seat in the state, and he lives in the district he is contesting. The sitting member Emma Vulin announced in September 2025 that she will not recontest, so there is no incumbent to dislodge. Pickering has worked in farming, construction and mining, and served in the military.

Jeremy JohnsonYan YeanLABOR 4.3%Follow →

Johnson works in cybersecurity and serves as an Army reservist, and he is contesting one of the four Labor seats on the party's target list, on Melbourne's northern fringe, where Lauren Kathage holds a margin of just over four points.

Matthew KatselisMeltonLABOR 4.6%Follow →

Katselis works in logistics and was born and raised in Melbourne's outer western suburbs and has already carried the party's colours once, standing for One Nation in the federal seat of Hawke in 2025 and taking 9.67% of the vote. Melton sits inside that same stretch of the west, so he is campaigning on ground he has already worked.

Michael PiastrinoBerwickLIBERAL 4.7%Follow →

Piastrino is a small business owner who runs a hair salon in Albert Park, and he has taken on a sitting premier before, standing as the Liberal candidate against Daniel Andrews in Mulgrave in 2022 and polling 17.2%. He has since left the Liberals for One Nation, and in Berwick he is up against Brad Battin, who led the state Liberals until November 2025 and is now their police spokesman.

Elita DabrowskiSunburyLABOR 6.4%Follow →

Dabrowski runs a naturopathy practice in Sunbury and is contesting the district she works in, against Labor's Josh Bull, who has held it since 2014. Sunbury is one of the outer suburban seats on Melbourne's northern edge where cost of living and the pace of housing growth have pushed hardest.

Trevor HammondNarre Warren SouthLABOR 8.3%Follow →

Hammond is a self employed tradesman in the building industry who has lived in Melbourne's south east for more than forty years, and he has carried the party colours once already, contesting the federal seat of Holt at the 2025 election. Holt covers much the same suburbs as Narre Warren South, so he is working ground he has already campaigned across, against Gary Maas, who has held the seat since 2018.

Jessie WeatherleyElthamLABOR 9.0%Follow →

Weatherley works as an artificial intelligence consultant and is a mother of two, and she has drawn one of the tougher assignments on the list, taking on Vicki Ward, who has held Eltham since 2014 and is the Minister for Public Transport.

John BarnesEssendonLABOR 12.5%Follow →

Barnes is the best known name on the list, a ruckman who played 202 games between 1987 and 2001, including every match of Essendon's 2000 premiership season across a fifteen year career that also took in Geelong. He collected rubbish for Hume City Council before football, has sat on Moonee Valley Council since 2024, and now leads a concussion action on behalf of more than a hundred former players.

Ben LucasNarracanLIBERAL 12.9%Follow →

Lucas is a sitting Baw Baw Shire councillor for West Ward and one of the party's Victorian executive members, and he is running on his own patch in Gippsland. He resigned from the Liberal Party in September 2025 and joined One Nation the following month, saying he was no longer aligned with Liberal policy and was tired of the infighting.

Darren HercusNepeanLIBERAL 13.2%Follow →

Hercus is a civil engineer from Safety Beach with more than thirty years in building and construction, and he spent about fifteen of them running a floor and truss business supplying the trade. He stood at the Nepean by-election in May and took 24.5% of the primary vote, the strongest result One Nation has recorded in a Victorian district, before Liberal Anthony Marsh took the seat.

Garner SmithMurray PlainsNATIONALS 23.4%Follow →

Smith is the Gannawarra Shire mayor and a former Nationals member, and he is taking on the safest seat on the list in Peter Walsh, who has held Murray Plains and its predecessor since 2002. Having once belonged to the party he is now running against, he knows the ground, and a serious dent in a margin that size would say more about One Nation's standing in the north than a win in the suburbs would.

Battlefield Breakdown: Targeting Key Lower House Districts

Running candidates across three quarters of Victoria is not about forming government. One Nation is executing a tactical campaign built to capture lower house seats while driving up a massive primary vote across the state. Under full preferential voting rules, every single vote continues working until a candidate reaches a majority. That means a strong One Nation turnout forces every major party to account for conservative voters.

Four districts carry margins under 5%, making them prime targets on election day. Pakenham sits right at the top of the list, held by Labor by just 0.4% with no sitting member defending it. Without an incumbent to hold the personal vote, the race opens wide for an outsider victory.

Nepean offers a completely different measure of One Nation’s rising momentum. The May by-election proved the party’s immense drawing power on the ground when candidate Darren Hercus locked in a commanding 24.5% primary vote. While Labor opted out of contesting that race, One Nation established an undeniable baseline of local support.

Anthony Marsh now holds the seat on a 13.2% margin compared to the 6.4% margin entering the by-election. The target line may have moved, but One Nation enters the general election with a battle tested voter base and serious momentum to challenge the incumbent stronghold.

The Road to November: Expanding the Campaign and Upper House Strategy

This candidate rollout is only the beginning of a far broader state campaign. Dozens of lower house nominations are set to be finalised before polling day, ensuring a growing candidate field across target districts. The ballot order for each seat will be determined during the official candidate draw.

Beyond individual lower house districts, full tickets are set to contest all eight Legislative Council regions. With group voting tickets active in Victoria, strategic preference alignments in the upper house will be just as critical as the primary vote in deciding legislative power.

We're covering the campaign seat by seat through to 28 November. Our Upper House Preview explains how the Legislative Council works and where the party is running, Meet the Team profiles the upper house candidates in full, and the poll tracker follows the numbers as they move.