Australian election polls live: latest Newspoll, Roy Morgan, YouGov, DemosAU and every state and by election number

• Pauline Hanson has overtaken Anthony Albanese as preferred Prime Minister for the first time in Australian polling history, leading 33 to 29 in Resolve with Angus Taylor a distant third on 16%.
• Resolve becomes the fourth pollster in three weeks to put One Nation first on federal primary vote, with the Coalition collapsing eight points since January to a record low of 20%, while Labor barely moves.
• Only 24% of Victorians want Jacinta Allan to remain Labor leader against 62% who want her replaced, with no precedent for Victorian Labor switching leaders this close to an election since 1999.

7:55pm 14 June 2026 — #BREAKING: Hanson leads Albanese in a first for any pollster

Pauline Hanson leads Anthony Albanese as preferred Prime Minister in Resolve's latest federal survey, the first time any pollster has put a One Nation leader ahead of a sitting PM. Newspoll a week ago had Albanese leading Hanson 44 to 38. YouGov had Albanese ahead 47 to 41 in early June. RedBridge's three way had it Albanese 31, Hanson 25, Taylor 14. Resolve is the outlier, for now.

A word on the methodology. Newspoll and YouGov force a head to head, Albanese versus Hanson, pick one, which props up the incumbent because he's the default for undecided voters. Resolve gives you a list and lets you pick anyone, which lowers the incumbent's number and lifts challengers with strong name recognition. Hanson has had near total name recognition for thirty years, so the method helps her at the margins. But not by enough to close a four point gap.

The buried number is Angus Taylor on 16%, less than half the One Nation leader and 13 points behind a Prime Minister voters don't seem to like much. The Liberal Party room will hate reading that on Monday.

7:22pm 14 June 2026 — Resolve federal: four pollsters now agree, One Nation leads

Resolve becomes the fourth pollster in three weeks to put One Nation first on federal primary vote. YouGov had it on 29. Roy Morgan had it on 29.5. DemosAU had it on 28. Resolve has it on 29 today. Four firms, four methods, identical ordering. The rogue poll defence is dead.

The buried number is the 20. That's Angus Taylor's Coalition, down three in a month, in third place federally, and not far ahead of the Greens. The combined Coalition and One Nation primary now sits at 49% against Labor plus Greens on 40. The trajectory inside Resolve's own series finishes the story.

In January 2026 it was:
* Labor 30
* Coalition 28
* One Nation 18

Six months later in June 2026 it's:
* Labor 28
* Coalition 20
* One Nation 29

The Coalition has emptied eight points of primary into One Nation's column without Labor moving. Resolve refuses to publish a headline two party preferred on principle, so this poll lands with no 2PP for either side to fight over. The primary is the story, and the story is that everybody else has caught up to what One Nation's been saying for months.

6:45pm 13 June 2026 — Freshwater Victoria: 47% don't know who should replace Allan, Carroll leads the field on 21%

Freshwater's follow up question to its Victorian poll asks the obvious next question, and the answer is its own problem. If Labor changed leader, Deputy Premier Ben Carroll leads the field on 21%, Climate Action Minister Lily D'Ambrosio and Transport Minister Gabrielle Williams are tied on 8%, former Finance Minister Danny Pearson on 8%, former Health Minister Mary-Anne Thomas on 4%, someone else on 4%, and 47% unsure. Same poll, conducted 5 to 8 June from a sample of 1,034.

A curious detail in the candidate list. Pearson and Thomas both resigned from cabinet in the April reshuffle and confirmed they wouldn't contest November, so 12% of respondents have picked candidates who won't be in parliament after Allan is. Freshwater polled them anyway, presumably for name recognition, but realistically the only active cabinet contenders on the list are Carroll, D'Ambrosio and Williams.

Carroll's 21% is the clearest preference by a country mile, but it's still only a third of the 62% who want a change. Nobody else in active cabinet cracks double digits. He comes from Labor's right faction, Williams from Allan's own left faction, and AAP reported this week that both have been touted as possible replacements with no MP publicly putting their hand up.

This is what Freshwater's head of research Jordan Meyers warned about when the first numbers dropped: "A clear majority of voters now say it is time for Labor to change leader. The complication for Labor is that changing leader is no quick fix." Translation: the state wants the door, but it can't agree on which room comes next.

Victorian Labor hasn't changed leaders this close to an election since 1999. The numbers say they want to. The same numbers say they don't know what they'd get.

8:05pm 12 June 2026 — DemosAU Victoria: Coalition leads 55-45, the exact reverse of 2022, Labor falls to third on 21%

A new DemosAU/PremierNational Victorian election poll, conducted 7 to 11 June from a sample of 1,056 by AusPoll, has the Coalition leading Labor 55 to 45 on two party preferred. Labor won the 2022 election 55 to 45. Same number, opposite direction, a clean 10 point swing in one term of government.

On primaries it's Coalition 30, One Nation 23, Labor 21, Greens 15, Others 11. That 21 is Labor's worst primary vote of the entire term, below even the 22 Resolve recorded last year. Labor won government in 2022 with 37.

It's also the second pollster in a week to put Labor third in its own state. Freshwater had One Nation 25 and Labor 23 on Sunday. DemosAU has One Nation 23 and Labor 21 today. Different firms, different methods, same ordering. The rogue poll defence lasted four days.

The field dates are the quiet detail. This was polled across the spill speculation and Jacinta Allan's "all in" press conference on Monday. Voters watched the week Labor said Victorians don't want navel gazing, then handed Labor its worst number on record.

Between them, the Coalition and One Nation now hold 53% of the Victorian primary vote.

3:30pm 12 June 2026 — Freshwater Victoria: 62% say Labor should change leader, only 24% want Allan to stay

The leadership question from Freshwater's Victorian poll has now surfaced in full, and it reads like an exit interview. Asked whether Jacinta Allan should continue as Victorian Labor leader, 62% said the party should change leader, 24% said she should remain and 14% were unsure. Same poll that put Labor third, conducted 5 to 8 June from a sample of 1,034.

Her own base isn't holding the line either. Among Labor voters, 39% want her replaced and just 53% want her to stay, and 29% of all voters said they'd be more likely to back Labor in November if she wasn't leading it. That last number is the one doing the rounds in the caucus group chats.

The personal trajectory backs it up. Allan's net approval fell from minus 32 to minus 37 in this poll, Jess Wilson leads her as preferred premier 49 to 25, and DemosAU independently clocked her negative rating at 57% this week. Two pollsters, one week, same diagnosis.

Which raises the question nobody in Victorian Labor will answer on the record: does she make it to November? There's no modern precedent for it. Victorian Labor hasn't switched leaders this close to an election since Steve Bracks replaced John Brumby in March 1999, and that was in opposition. Dumping a sitting premier five months out would be unprecedented. So would governing with 24% of the state wanting you to stay.

Allan's answer was that she's all in. On these numbers, 62% of Victoria has already folded and walked away from the table.