Secret Harbour goes to the polls on Saturday 29 August, with 16 candidates on the ballot paper. Labor holds it on a margin of 11.5%, and the by-election was triggered when Paul Papalia announced his retirement on 6 July. On the numbers, the only candidate with a live shot at taking the seat is One Nation's Luke Herdegen.
Sixteen names is a lot to sort through, and the order you put them in decides who wins. Here's the whole field, how the count actually works, and why we say put One Nation first.
Video: One Nation WA via Facebook. Authorised by R Caddies. Tyron Whitten says WA needs more homes built by Australian workers, and mass immigration cut because almost none of the intake can build them.
Rod Caddies says Secret Harbour can be the seat that ends safe seat neglect
One Nation MLC Rod Caddies, who authorised the card, told One News the seat has a chance to change how the whole state's politicians behave.
The people of Secret Harbour have an opportunity to be the pioneers in a new status quo. One where no MP feels confident about their reelection and has to deliver to keep their job. They can bring an end to safe seat neglect. It's time for change you can trust.
That's the argument in a sentence. Karnup station was promised in 2013 and funded four weeks out from a by-election, because a safe seat only gets attention when it stops being safe.
Secret Harbour votes on Saturday 29 August. Number every box, and start with Luke Herdegen.
Every box on your ballot paper matters, not just the first one
WA's Legislative Assembly runs on full preferential voting. You have to number every box, 1 through to 16, and if you leave one blank your vote doesn't count.
Here's the part people miss. If nobody gets more than half the first preferences, and in a field this size nobody will, the lowest polling candidate is knocked out and their votes flow to whoever their voters numbered next. That repeats until somebody clears 50%. Your second, third and fourth preferences are real votes, and in a seat like this one they're the votes that decide it.
Which is why the order isn't a formality. Labor's 11.5% cushion doesn't get eaten by first preferences alone. It gets eaten when the minor party and independent votes flow the same way.
Video: One Nation WA via Facebook. Authorised by R Caddies. Luke Herdegen says working families just outside Roger Cook's own electorate are living in tents with children in primary school.
Luke Herdegen is the only candidate on the ballot who can take this seat off Labor
Herdegen is a gym franchisee and a former national weightlifting champion who runs a chain of gyms across the southern suburbs. He isn't a staffer and he isn't a party lifer, and he's spent the campaign doing the thing Labor's candidate hasn't.
When Roger Cook and Rita Saffioti turned up to announce a $156 million Karnup station that Labor first promised in 2013, Labor's candidate wasn't allowed to answer a single question. Herdegen stood in the same spot and took the lot. Asked whether One Nation had put a scare into Labor, he said they were "a little bit scared". Asked whether he gets much support on the ground, he said it was constant. "We're walking into pubs and venues, and we're getting clapped through the door."
The Liberals have also preferenced One Nation above Labor here, and the party is treating the contest as a dry run against Andrew Hastie in Canning. Pauline Hanson has never held a lower house seat in the WA Parliament. This is the one that's in reach.
Video: One Nation WA via Facebook. Authorised by R Caddies. Rod Caddies says Labor blames population growth for its failures when its own immigration policy created the demand.
Georgia Tree won't answer questions and doesn't live in the electorate
Labor's candidate is Georgia Tree, a former adviser to federal Resources Minister Madeleine King who also worked in government relations for Woodside. Labor's campaign material calls her "Warnbro raised", and she was.
She doesn't live there now. The West Australian reported on 13 July that Tree's home is in Inglewood, more than 60 kilometres from the seat, and three days later that she'd bought a $1.4 million house there. Tree said she wasn't prepared to pay over market value to move into Secret Harbour a year before the by-election was triggered.
The full field of 16 candidates on your Secret Harbour ballot paper
- Luke Herdegen, One Nation. Gym franchisee and former national weightlifting champion. Our pick.
- Georgia Tree, WA Labor. Former adviser to Madeleine King and a Woodside government relations staffer. Lives in Inglewood.
- Ryan Robertson, Liberal Party. Rockingham councillor, real estate agent and a former submariner.
- Anthony Fels, WA First. Former WA Liberal MLC who nominated in the last hours before nominations closed.
- Tim Hamilton, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party WA. Firearms owners, fishers and regional WA.
- Robert Burdett, Australian Christians. Socially conservative Christian platform.
- Matthew Barton, Libertarian. Smaller government, lower tax, fewer rules.
- Craig Robert Buchanan, Legalise Cannabis Party WA. Cannabis law reform.
- Neil Jensen, Animal Justice Party. Animal welfare.
- Rhi Davies, The Greens (WA). Climate and environment platform.
- Paul Howard, Independent.
- Teresa Van Lieshout, Independent.
- Paul Gullan, Independent.
- Jayne Palmer, Independent.
- Peter D Dunne, Independent.
- Brett Murrell, Independent.
Six of the 16 are independents, and candidates from 10 of the state's 13 registered parties are contesting. It's the biggest field the seat has seen.
One Nation's how to vote card for Secret Harbour, registered with the Electoral Commission
One Nation has registered its how to vote card for the seat with the WA Electoral Commission, and it's published on the Commission's public register as registration 2383. The card is below. If you want One Nation to win this seat, follow it.
