One Nation's vote has tripled in a year across outer Sydney, the Hunter and regional New South Wales, according to new polling published Monday that maps what researchers describe as a ring of fire around the Sydney basin. Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce will open the party's state election push at a sold out fundraising dinner in Dubbo on Saturday night.
The timing is the problem for Premier Chris Minns. The state election is locked in for 13 March 2027, his minority government holds 46 of the 93 seats in the lower house. While Labor still leads statewide, in the Hunter the same research now has One Nation in front of it on state voting intention.
38% in regional NSW and 34% in the Hunter: the vote ringing the Sydney basin
The figures come from News Corp's Lighthouse Consumer Tracker, published in Monday's Daily Telegraph. In regional NSW, 38% of respondents said they'd vote One Nation at a federal level, the party sits on 34% in the Hunter and Newcastle, and it holds 31% in both outer and middle Sydney, with its federal support roughly tripling since the first half of 2025.
News Corp's Head of Research James Taylor called the results a "pretty seismic shift" away from the traditional parties, driven by "a strong level of disenchantment with the political system".
"There is a ring of fire around the Sydney basin ... but that's kind of the fire break for the rest of the state which is all on fire," he said.
Lower income households remain the party's strongest base, though the growth is now coming from further up the scale, with support in households earning above $150,000 a year climbing from 10% to 24% over the past year.
George Hasanakos sees the same map, with One Nation on 37% outside Sydney
The tracker lines up with what published state polling has shown since winter. DemosAU's June survey of 1,038 NSW voters had Labor on 32%, One Nation on 27% after a six point jump, and the Coalition on 20%, and when the sample is narrowed to voters outside the Sydney basin, One Nation leads outright on 37% to Labor's 23% and the Coalition's 19%.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos told the Telegraph the Lighthouse data "broadly matches" his firm's recent polls, and said One Nation runs higher federally than at state level because "its greatest attraction, Pauline Hanson, is in the federal sphere".
When the June numbers landed, Hasanakos was blunter about what they meant for the Liberals and Nationals.
"If an election were held today the Coalition would be at severe risk of being relegated to the crossbenches," he said at the time.
The pattern runs well beyond this state: DemosAU's July mega poll of 9,343 voters found no party reaching a majority federally and One Nation within reach of forming government, a result One News covered in July, and our poll tracker has logged the party's climb in every mainland state since June.
The most recent federal Newspoll, conducted 3 to 7 August, bears that out, with One Nation level with Labor on 29% and eleven points clear of the Coalition.
Chris Minns is one seat short of a majority and the Hunter has already moved
Lighthouse's state tracking has had One Nation as the second most popular party in NSW since April, ahead of the Coalition, and in the Hunter it has now leapfrogged Labor. Kellie Sloane, who took the Liberal leadership in November, leads a Coalition running third in a state it governed as recently as 2023.
"Chris Minns is still well placed, but the rise of One Nation in state politics mirrors the national increase, and displays a level of overarching voter dissatisfaction with the direction the country is headed in," Taylor said.
Minns has already shown how seriously Labor treats the threat, warning that a One Nation ascendancy would be "bad for our economy, bad for community cohesion, and bad for young people who may not have white pigmentation". He enters the campaign carrying baggage of his own, with two Labor men charged in July over the donations behind his 2015 election win in Kogarah, though Minns himself isn't accused of any wrongdoing.
Moore Point, Kogarah and a stalled cannabis bill: the Premier's problem list
The poll numbers land on top of a run of problems for the Premier, several of which One News has covered in recent weeks.
| What is plaguing Chris Minns | Where it stands |
|---|---|
| Moore Point scrapped | The $9 billion mini city opposite the Liverpool CBD is dead, taking 11,000 homes and 23,000 jobs with it while the mayor and the planning minister blame each other, and our full report has the detail. |
| Kogarah donations charges | The donations behind his 2015 win in Kogarah have seen two Labor men charged in July, with Minns himself not accused of wrongdoing. |
| Cannabis driving bill stalled | The scheme stalled in the upper house after Labor conceded nobody modelled what it does to green slip prices, with a 5,000 driver study held back until after the vote. |
| $10 million hemp grant | A Chinese owned textile giant took a $10 million regional jobs grant while the Murrumbidgee mayor says local projects were passed over, and she puts the decision on Minns and Anthony Albanese. |
| Sentencing backlash | NSW Labor scrapped the good character discount for every crime after arguing it benefited "White, middle-class men". |
Hanson and Joyce will fill a booked out room in Dugald Saunders' seat
The Dubbo dinner on Saturday 15 August is the campaign's opening act, promoted by the party's NSW division as a "very special evening" with Hanson and Joyce to fund "a historic 2027 NSW state election campaign". The Guardian reported seats at the pair's tables sold for $1,000 each.
Dubbo has been in Nationals hands through Dugald Saunders since 2019, he led the state party until November, and he took 68.6% of the final count in 2023, when One Nation didn't field a Dubbo candidate. The Telegraph reports the party appears set to target the seat regardless, and that recent state polling points to a rise that could, in the paper's words, "annihilate" Nationals MPs across regional NSW.
Latham, Roberts and Mihailuk all walked, so the upper house rebuild starts at zero
The bigger prize in March is the Legislative Council, where 21 of the 42 seats go to the ballot and a seat costs about 4.5% of the statewide vote. DemosAU's June survey had One Nation on 27% for the upper house, three points behind Labor on 30%, and support at that level would return five or six members if it held to polling day.
The party needs every one of them because it has nobody in the chamber now. Mark Latham and Tania Mihailuk were elected on its ticket in 2023, Rod Roberts won his seat on the same ticket in 2019, and all three left the party and sit as independents. Roberts' term is among the 21 expiring in March. The paper reports the NSW upper house ticket will be announced shortly.
Barnaby Joyce, David Farley and two senators: the federal machine is already in NSW
The state campaign sits on top of a federal operation that has been building here for months. Joyce, the New England MP, left the Nationals for One Nation in December 2025 and was announced as the future lead of the party's NSW Senate ticket. David Farley then won May's Farrer byelection with 39.5% of the primary vote after a 32.9% swing, the first One Nation candidate elected to the House of Representatives rather than defecting into it.
In the Senate, Sean Bell was appointed in September 2025 to fill the vacancy left by Warwick Stacey, and former Liberal Hollie Hughes now sits with the party, giving One Nation two of the state's 12 senators. James Ashby stepped up as party director this month, and our report on his appointment noted senior party figures believe Anthony Albanese could call the federal election early.
"Albanese has just ruined it": the Camden and Campbelltown voters powering the shift
The paper put names and faces to the trend. Joanne Wilson, a Camden local of more than three decades, said she backs the party over its pledge to cut migration.
"(Ms Hanson) is trying to avoid the immigration, because Albanese has just ruined it, the amount of people that have come here, our health system is atrocious," she said.
Sandra Greaves, 44, of Campbelltown, said the drift to One Nation comes down to Hanson being "loud and proud".
"I think she has some really great ideas and some of her thought processes I love, but she could be a little kinder," she said.
One Nation hasn't named a single NSW state candidate yet, and the room in Dubbo sold out anyway.
