One Nation has named Luke Herdegen, a 39 year old Rockingham business owner, as its candidate for the Secret Harbour by-election on Saturday 29 August. He owns multiple Anytime Fitness gyms across Perth's southern suburbs and was chosen from 88 nominees. The seat is Labor's, held by 11.5%, and it sits inside Canning, the federal electorate held by Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie.
Rod Caddies MLC, One Nation's leader in Western Australia, announced the preselection at the weekend, calling Herdegen "exactly the kind of fighter Secret Harbour needs" after what he described as a tough selection process.
Nominations close at 12 noon on Tuesday 21 July, according to the Western Australian Electoral Commission.
Rod Caddies is running Secret Harbour on power bills and population growth
Caddies put two issues at the centre of the campaign, and neither is a culture war.
"Skyrocketing living costs and falling living standards come down to two main things: reckless net zero policies that make everything more expensive, and completely mismanaged population growth that's left us with chronic shortages of housing, hospital beds, school places, roads and basic services," Caddies said.
He also went at the shape of the contest itself, arguing a Labor backbencher can't deliver what a senior minister didn't. "Labor talks a big game about standing up for locals, but why should anyone expect a fresh-faced junior MP to achieve what a senior cabinet minister couldn't?" he said. "Labor backbenchers are muzzled."
Premier Roger Cook rejected it, saying One Nation had "no answers" and "no policies that will help the people of Western Australia", and pointing to the party's votes against tax cuts, Medicare changes and childcare cost reductions.
Paul Papalia's resignation is what put Secret Harbour on the ballot
Paul Papalia announced on 6 July that he was standing down from his portfolios and from Parliament, after a close family member was diagnosed with a serious illness. He was the longest serving lower house MP in Western Australia and had held corrective services, defence industries, emergency services, veterans, and racing and gaming. Landsdale MP Daniel Pastorelli took his place in Cabinet.
The margin looks safe on paper and isn't. Papalia won in 2025 on 46.5% of the primary vote, but that came after a swing against him of 28.5%, the sort of number that turns a fortress into a contest. The Liberals took 25%. One Nation took 8.4% without a serious campaign behind it.
Papalia's personal vote goes off the ballot with him. The seat has only ever had one member. Secret Harbour was created in a 2023 redistribution, replacing Warnbro, which itself replaced Peel in 2008, and Papalia is the only person ever elected to it. What's left is a third term Labor government defending an outer suburban mortgage belt in a cost of living squeeze, without the man who built the local vote.
Andrew Hastie has declared war three times now, and One Nation still won't fight him
Secret Harbour sits inside Canning, which is why a state by-election has become a federal story. Caddies has said the campaign is a learning opportunity for a tilt at Canning at the next federal election, and he's been blunt that Hastie isn't the target.
"I have no intention of fighting Andrew Hastie or the Liberals. I have got intentions on going to war with Labor," Caddies said, adding that Hastie was "fighting a ghost war".
Hastie's version runs the other way. "One Nation has declared war on me, so they shall have war," he said. "They will have to blast me out of Canning." That's the same posture he took in June, and the one Anthony Albanese was happy to endorse in July. We covered the Canning dry run when the by-election was called.
It's the third declaration in as many months. In June he said he'd "rather be taken out in a box than bend the knee" to One Nation. Later that month he reached for Sun Tzu. Now it's blasting. Each escalation has been met by Caddies pointing out, patiently, that nobody is coming for him.
The numbers are what make the posture awkward. The most recent Newspoll has the Coalition on 19% of the primary vote, 11 points behind the party Hastie says he's at war with. He holds Canning on a 42.5% primary and 56.6% two party preferred, which is comfortable right up until the party underneath you is polling in the teens.
Then there's the endorsement. When Hastie went after One Nation in July, the loudest applause came from Anthony Albanese, a Labor prime minister cheering a Liberal frontbencher for attacking the party taking votes off Labor. Hastie hasn't distanced himself from it.
The practical point for voters in Secret Harbour is narrower. Hastie isn't on this ballot. Herdegen is, and the man who says he'll have to be blasted out of Canning can only watch this one from the sidelines.
The Liberals picked a submariner to replace a sailor, and the Nationals aren't running at all
Six candidates are contesting the seat. Labor's Georgia Tree is a former staffer for Brand MP Madeleine King who has also worked in government relations for Woodside. The Liberals have preselected Ryan Robertson, a City of Rockingham councillor and former submariner, a background that closely tracks Papalia's own navy career, and he was the only Liberal to nominate. The Greens have Rhi Davies. Legalise Cannabis has Dr Craig Buchanan, a former two term Rockingham councillor. The Australian Christians have Robert Burdett, who worked in mining and industrial construction around the Kwinana Strip and Henderson before 15 years as a health and safety adviser.
The Nationals aren't running. WA Nationals president Paul Gillet said the party had decided not to contest the seat and recommended voters support the Liberal candidate, citing a "shared goal of ending a decade of a state Labor government".
What a good night actually looks like for Luke Herdegen
Secret Harbour is already One Nation's eighth best area in the state on Legislative Council numbers, so the party isn't starting from nothing. Nationally the party is at the top of the field. The most recent Newspoll, taken 13 to 16 July, has One Nation level with Labor on 30% of the primary vote, with the Coalition stranded on 19%. Roy Morgan's latest, from 6 to 12 July, has One Nation on 28% and narrowly ahead of Labor on 27.5%, a jump of 5.5 points that ended two weeks of decline. Our poll tracker carries the full set.
Winning off an 11.5% margin would take a swing bigger than anything One Nation has managed at a state lower house contest. The more realistic measure is the primary vote. Move 8.4% into the twenties and the argument that Canning is live writes itself. Leave it in single digits and Hastie's line about blasting him out looks a lot cheaper.
Voters go to the polls on Saturday 29 August.
