One Nation overtakes Labor in Victoria as Jacinta Allan rejects calls to quit before November

Victorian Labor has fallen to third place in its own state, with a new Freshwater Strategy poll putting its primary vote at 23%, behind the Coalition on 27% and One Nation on 25%. Premier Jacinta Allan says she's not going anywhere.

The poll, conducted for the Herald Sun from 5 to 8 June with a sample of 1,034 voters, has Labor down 4 points since March and 14 points below its result at the 2022 election. One Nation is up 5 points over the same period. On a two party preferred basis the Coalition leads 53 to 47, a result that would end 12 years of Labor government if repeated at the November election.

The numbers

  • Coalition: 27%, down 3 since March
  • One Nation: 25%, up 5 since March
  • Labor: 23%, down 4 since March and 14 points below its 2022 result
  • Two party preferred: Coalition 53, Labor 47
  • 62% of voters say Labor should replace Allan before the election, including 39% of Labor's own voters
  • Allan's net approval: minus 37, down from minus 32 in March

The Herald Sun's report didn't publish a Greens figure. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson now leads Allan as preferred premier 49 to 25, out from 47 to 31 in March, an unusually wide margin for an opposition leader over a sitting premier.

Freshwater's head of research Jordan Meyers told the Herald Sun the Premier had become a drag on Labor's vote. "A clear majority of voters now say it is time for Labor to change leader," he said. "The complication for Labor is that changing leader is no quick fix."

Allan digs in

Facing questions about her leadership on Tuesday, Allan rejected suggestions she resign and dismissed reports that Labor MPs were discussing a spill, Sky News reported.

"I don't know who these people are. I've said navel-gazing is not the answer here. Navel-gazing isn't what Victorians want," she said.

Asked directly whether any Labor colleagues had urged her to step aside, Allan said: "No." Pressed on whether MPs had discussed concerns about her leadership: "Absolutely not."

She went further: "I am absolutely determined to see this through because when the going gets tough, the tough gets going and I am all in for this challenge."

The Premier also acknowledged the elephant in the polling. "We also see how the One Nation is cannibalising the Liberal Party vote, the National Party vote. And I will also acknowledge it is taking a slice out of the Labor vote as well," she said, before framing November as a choice between a Labor government "that will continue to help" and what she called a Liberal outfit "that's all about cuts and One Nation that's all about chaos".

Inside the party room

The denials sit awkwardly next to the reporting. Eight Labor MPs from across the factional divide told The Age there was frustration within the party about Allan's leadership, with MPs from both the Left and Right saying the rise of One Nation and the run of poor polls had left caucus pessimistic.

Some of those MPs said the numbers weren't yet there for a formal challenge. Potential successors floated internally, according to that reporting, include Deputy Premier Ben Carroll and cabinet ministers Gabrielle Williams and Steve Dimopoulos.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has backed Allan, telling reporters this week she's the best person to run Victoria.

Where One Nation has come from

The scale of the shift is hard to overstate. One Nation polled 0.22% in Victoria at the 2022 state election. It's now polling 25%.

And that 25% currently exists without a single candidate attached to it. The party hasn't yet announced any candidates for November, though it's declared it will contest every seat and has flagged fielding up to 100 candidates across the state. Its only Victorian outing so far this cycle was the Nepean by-election in May, where it ran small business owner Darren Hercus in a seat the Liberals retained.

The Freshwater result isn't an outlier either. A RedBridge Group poll in February had One Nation on 24% in Victoria, and a Roy Morgan SMS poll published in March had the party leading the field outright on 26.5%.

The road to November

None of this makes the Coalition's path simple. AAP reports the Coalition would still need to pick up 16 seats to govern in majority, so a change of government in November would likely run through a crossbench, and on these numbers a fair chunk of that pressure is coming from the right.

The election is five months away. Labor's primary vote is 14 points below where it sat on the night it last won.

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